Fiat Yamaha Team's Valentino Rossi (Photo: Yamaha Racing) » More Photos

Here are the numbers that tell the story from Phillip Island and Sepang II:

Stoner’s race 2008 Phillip Island simulation compared

Rider 2007 race times and projected 2008 simulations

Stoner 2008 40 m. 49.296 sec
Stoner 2007 41 m. 12.244 sec +22.948
Edwards 2008 41 m. 16.980 sec +27.684
Capirossi 2007 41 m. 19.007 sec +29,711
Rossi 2007 41 m. 22.282 sec +32.986
Pedrosa 2007 41 m. 23.907 sec +34.611
Toseland 2008 41 m. 26.880 sec +37.584
Melandri 2008 41 m. 31.680 sec +42.384
Capirossi 2008 41 m. 42.180 sec +52.884
Edwards 2007 41 m. 47.317 sec +58.021
West 2008 42 m. 12.420 sec +1’23.304

From this it is clear that Stoner beat his own winning time from 2007 by 22.948 seconds after factoring in a realistic standing start first lap. The optimistic press release from Yamaha that spoke of an improvement by Edwards of over 20 seconds over his race time from 2007 fails to observe that Edwards finished a dismal ninth over 35 seconds behind Stoner last year. Edwards did improve his one theoretical simulation by just over a half minute, but that time is still nearly a half minute (27.684 seconds) off the stunning pace that Stoner displayed in the recent winter tests.

Average of best five laps on race tires at 2008 Phillip Island tests

1. Stoner (Ducati-Bridgestone) 1´30.174
2. Dovizioso (Honda-Michelin) 1´30.567 +0.393
3. De Angelis (Honda-Bridgestone) 1´30.717 +0.543
4. Edwards (Yamaha-Michelin) 1´31.042 +0.868
5. Toseland (Yamaha-Michelin) 1´31.189 +1.015
6. Vermeulen (Suzuki-Bridgestone) 1´31.405 +1.231
7. Nakano (Honda-Bridgestone) 1´31.426 +1.252
8. Hayden (Honda-Michelin) 1´31.474 +1.300
9. De Puniet (Honda-Michelin) 1´31.506 +l.332
10. Melandri (Ducati-Bridgestone) 1´31.543 +1.369
11. Capirossi (Suzuki-Bridgestone) 1´31.620 +1.446
12. Elías (Ducati-Bridgestone) 1´31.679 +1.505
13. Hopkins (Suzuki-Bridgestone) 1´31.902 +1.728*
14. Guintoli (Ducati-Bridgestone) 1´31.959 +1.785
15. West (Kawasaki-Bridgestone) 1´32.142 +1.968

Rossi’s Sepang 2008 race simulation compared to the pace of Stoner, Pedrosa and Rossi in 2007

Race time

1. Rossi 2008 (Yamaha-Bridgestone) 42´46.731 (Simulation)
2. Stoner 2007 (Ducati-Bridgestone) 43´04.405 +17.674
3. Pedrosa 2007 (Honda-Bridgestone) 43´06.731 +20.0
4. Rossi 2007 (Yamaha-Michelin) 43´09.178 +22.447

Best Average Times on Race Tires at Sepang II

(Average of five fastest laps on race tires at Sepang II)

1. Rossi (Yamaha-Bridgestone) 2´01.522
2. Hayden (Honda-Michelin) 2´02.400
3. Lorenzo (Yamaha-Michelin) 2´02.472
4. Nakano (Honda-Bridgestone) 2.02.662
5. De Angelis (Honda-Bridgestone) 2.03.339

A superficial glance at the times from the two Sepang tests and the Phillip Island tests, focusing on times set on qualifying tires, might give the impression that Honda’s Nicky Hayden on Michelins at the first Sepang tests and Yamaha’s Jorge Lorenzo on Michelins at the second Sepang outing have matched the pace of Rossi and Stoner, but the reality is that the Italian on the Bridgestone-shod Yamaha and the Australian World Champion on the Bridgestone-shod Ducati have totally dominated the winter tests.

Bridgestone technicians have been working very hard on their qualifying tires after seeing Honda riders on Michelins take the final five pole positions of the 2007 season (Hayden in Portugal and then Pedrosa ran the table in Japan, Malaysia, Australia and Valencia).

In Jerez somebody will win a car, but, whatever happens on qualifying tires, the data to watch is the race pace.